The recent events in Great Britain and the subsequent resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron, the country in anarchy have caught the attention of several commentators. This is especially so in Malta were due to the various connections which we have with the United Kingdom ranging from the commercial to the historical, Brexit has been the topic in discussion for the past several weeks. Yet more than any topic that has taken place in the international sphere this chapter is far from closed. By choosing after more than 40 years of membership to leave the Bloc, Britain has put the very existence of stability and even continuity of the EU in doubt. These are some of the issues that will affect European stability in the coming months especially in the wake of the Brexit vote.
British Instability
On most aspects Brexit has created instability in the United Kingdom, creating divisions and causing uncertainties even though a new Prime Minister has taken Downing Street. The devaluation of the Pound and subsequent economic turmoil has fuelled potential uncertainties. So have been calls by the SNP for Scottish Independence and eventual membership with the EU. In my opinion calls by Sinn Fein for Northern Ireland to join the Eire are less likely given the Loyalist sentiment of that Province’s Protestant majority.
On the subject of Scotland the EU itself is divided, whilst the President of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker and many members of the European Parliament have shown themselves sympathetic towards that country’s position on Independence and membership, Spain, France and to some extant Germany have however had reactions that can best be described as lukewarm. Most of these countries see Scottish Independence as a way of opening a veritable Pandora’s Box in regards to regions who have in the near past or in the case of Catalonia in Spain in the present, demanded separate nationhood. Granting such a concession could mean undermining the very concept of territorial integrity upon which the nation-states of Europe have been built. Even on the political sphere Britain is in turmoil with the Prime Minister resigning on the day the Brexit referendum result was announced, the leaders of the Brexit movement themselves falling on their own swords and the leader of the opposition under immense pressure to resign. For Britain this is probably the worst crisis since the end of World II.
A Continent in Turmoil
The Brexit fallout has not been confined to the United Kingdom on the immediate aftermath of the referendum, several Radical Right parties called for similar referenda to be held in their countries. Though most of them seem to have watered down there demands. A brief overview of these countries will suffice to explain the ongoing problems that the EU will face in the coming months:
1. Renzi’s Italicum referendum: Though at first it might not seem related to this issue, Italy’s Matteo Renzi’s proposed referendum on reforming the country’s legislative houses could cause further turmoil in the Eurozone as well as the EU itself. His promise to resign if the proposed reforms fail to pass the popular vote coupled with a decline in his popularity could open the way for the anti-establishment Cinque Stelle to further increase its power base. In such an eventuality the latter party will start working for a referendum so that Italy might exit the Eurozone and return to its own currency, thus adding further economic turmoil.
2. French Presidential elections: The oncoming Presidential elections next year could also bring in changes that can affect the EU. The ever increasing unpopularity of Francois Hollande and his Socialist party and the inability of the opposition UMP to put its house in order has opened the way for extremist parties to grow. The most notable being the radical Right wing Front National, whose leader Marine Le Pen has promised what has been called a Frexit. On the other hand Nicholas Sarkozy the likely Centre Right candidate to replace Hollande has already made it clear that he intends to pressure the EU for changes in its nature whilst at the same time showing his disdain for Jean Claude Juncker, whom Sarkozy sees as an obstacle for necessary reforms.
3. Unease in Central and Eastern Europe: The drift towards the right that started in Hungary in 2010 and has spread to neighbouring Poland, Slovakia and even Austria, point to an incipient birth of a nationalistic bloc within the EU. Till now there has been no open embrace of the idea of leaving the Union, but rather of doing their way whilst retaining the benefits of membership. Still the potential for turmoil is still there.
The EU is still worth defending
Yet despite all the troubles and obstacles facing it, the EU is still worth defending and upholding. It has brought peace and economic prosperity in our continent. The fact that people are feeling estranged from it does not mean that the institution is wrong in nature. Rather what is needed is a rediscovery of the founding values of the EU based on solidarity, the spread of prosperity and respect for human rights.
Justin Schembri huwa kandidat tal-Partit Nazzjonalista fuq it-8 Distrett.
Verżjoni ta’ din l-opinjoni dehret fuq il-ġurnal The Malta Independent tal-Ħamis 28 ta’ Lulju 2016.
